Near-Future Scenario Exercise:
D2C Automotive Sales Model

BACKGROUND

A future thinking workshop was conducted to imagine a near-future where auto manufacturers were permitted to sell direct-to-customers (D2C) in all 50 U.S. states. The goal of this “probable” near-future scenario was to provide a source for constructive debate and most importantly the proactive preparation to ensure long-term organizational viability. This thought experiment was to enable organizations to prepare now, to survive later.

Participants ideated on possible ways independent automotive dealerships could survive and prosper in a D2C environment. The power of thought experiments to provide options for near-term scenarios provide the incentive to act now, rather than passively allow the market to shape an organization’s future.

Participants felt that the development of a unique corporate culture was critical for long-term success; a foundational corporate culture would prevent competitors from replicating the core values and offerings. Similarly to lessons from the Toyota Production System, Ritz-Carlton, Carl Sewell, and Southwest Airlines, a self-reinforcing corporate culture based on high levels of customer service, collective commitment, strategic sensitivity, resource fluidity, and continuous learning, improvement, and innovation would be necessary for developing a long-term sustainable competitive advantage. The following is a summary of the workshop.

NEXT STEPS

Dr. Dave will engage with automotive industry professionals to further discuss and ideate possible solutions to a possible 50-state adoption of D2C sales. This “probable” near-future scenario should encourage and promote proactive planning activities within independent and franchise dealerships. The organizations which prepare and implement solutions NOW will enjoy the benefits of first-mover leadership and establishing successful business practices. Plan and act now for this expected disruption.