In the March/April 2024 issue of Car & Driver magazine, Jamie Kitman points out the gains and pains within the current four-wheel EV landscape. Kitman’s Upfront article, Alternating Current provides the painful reality of “poor planning” (my words, not his) within the hallowed walls of auto OEs, again. As history seems to always repeat itself, once again the lack of reality has bit auto manufacturers in the butt. When global governments started mandating zero-emissions by 2035, the OEs’ jealousy of Tesla gained unprecedented momentum.
As a veteran product planner in the powersports industry, I have seen my fair share of wins and losses. From Polaris’ multi-decade side-by-side success (sorry Japanese executives, but thousands of Americans will pay more than $20k for an off-road vehicle) to the Japanese cruiser flop in the mid-2000s (sorry, you cannot out-Harley, Harley), the focus on keeping factories chugging along gets in the way of common sense and market realities. And with oversized executive egos and paychecks linked to market share, bad things typically happen. Unfortunately, no one with enough power can tell the higher-ups that the overinflated production plans are not feasible.
Kitman points out that in 2023 global EV sales hit record numbers. Unfortunately, as the COVID bump ended, inflation started ramping up, and the U.S. charging infrastructure is ridiculously poor, EV sales are well below expectations. Kitman’s examples of Ford’s initial F-150 Lightning production numbers (they are now drastically cutting back), GM’s Hummer EV pickup, and Jaguar’s move to an all-electric lineup by 2025 makes you question where the common sense is at the various Boards. Trust me, most product planners knew that the market for F-150 Lightnings was nowhere near the approved volumes and that Hummer owners were not dreaming of charging their vehicles in the middle of nowhere. But fear, ego, and lack of common sense prevailed.
A lot of this blame needs to be put where it is deserved, on politicians. Clueless politicians who don’t understand R&D, manufacturing, and behavioral economics, put out unreasonable demands and timelines for typical self-promotion. Not to mention everyone’s excitement over Mr. Musk’s “wizardry”, reality was pushed aside for a future that was not around the corner. With the allure of high profit margins from trucks and luxury vehicles, the common-sense direction of building small EV commuter vehicles was unfortunately ignored.
I have done extensive EV research, and most people still have high levels of range anxiety, even those in Southern California where chargers are everywhere. Most drivers just want to drive to work, run a few errands and head home: the perfect case study for EVs. These potential customers will either charge at work or at home, they are not looking to drive 200-plus miles. Unfortunately, small-sized EVs don’t have the juicy margins that their big brothers have. And as executive pay is often linked to market share and overall revenue, who wants to deal with small cars when big-ass trucks are so alluring.
Yes, this might sound a bit harsh, but does anyone think the U.S. EV market will be expanding at ever increasing speeds anytime soon? Sorry to all the Tesla-fans, but not everyone lives in Southern California where chargers are everywhere, and high-paying jobs are a plenty. And unfortunately, Moore’s Law does not equate to “new” vehicle technology.
As we see Rivian cutting jobs, OEs cutting production plans, and dealer inventories piling up, the COVID exuberance was baked into an implausible future. As Toyota keeps pushing hybrids and global governments realize once again that zero-emissions are not feasible by 2035, it saddens me for all the people whose jobs are at stake from terrible management, poor decisions, and the lack of common sense. Let’s hope things get fixed before they get a lot worse.
As the election season is upon us, politicians should focus on a massive push to greatly expand the U.S. charging infrastructure; a relatively low-hanging fruit. An expanded, robust charging infrastructure will provide lots of new jobs, greatly reduce range anxiety, and help to move away from fossil fuels. Trust me, I don’t think EVs are the only solution, but they are an important move in the right direction to confront climate change and reduce our dependency on fossil fuels. Ah, the dreams of youth.
